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The Oral GLP-1 Race: Medical Breakthroughs Meet Financial Reality

The weight loss drug market is evolving rapidly as pharmaceutical companies advance their clinical trials for both oral and non-oral GLP-1 formulations. As Biopharmadive recently noted in an article, “The obesity drug race is far from over, with a plethora of companies vying for a piece of what’s expected to become a huge market in the years ahead. Analysts project that “incretin” drugs, like Novo’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound, could top more than $100 billion in yearly sales by 2030.” 

While these emerging treatments promise expanded therapeutic benefits for obesity-related conditions as well as improved efficiency in weight loss, they also pose challenges for employer-sponsored prescription plans already experiencing unprecedented utilization and cost increases from GLP-1s.  

Emerging Treatments in Clinical Trials 

These pharmaceutical companies are conducting extensive clinical trials for both oral and non-oral GLP-1 drugs, with each potential treatment still awaiting FDA approval: 

  • Novo Nordisk’s experimental oral drug, amycretin, currently in Phase 3 trials, has shown promise beyond weight loss. By targeting both GLP-1 and amylin receptors, it may offer additional benefits for cardiovascular health and metabolic disorders associated with obesity1.  
  • Eli Lilly’s orforglipron, advancing through Phase 3 trials, demonstrates potential benefits for obesity-related complications including fatty liver disease and sleep apnea2.  
  • Amgen’s MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), in late-stage clinical trials, is being studied for potential impacts on obesity-related inflammation and metabolic syndrome, with a unique monthly dosing approach3.  
  • Other pharmaceutical companies, including Roche and emerging biotech firms, are conducting trials focusing on broader therapeutic applications for obesity-related conditions while improving tolerability4.  

The Implications for Plan Sponsors 

As these medications progress through clinical trials toward potential FDA approval, many current injectable users may transition to oral versions, while the improved accessibility could drive new patient adoption. This shift will likely intensify the financial pressure on prescription benefit plans. 

In response to these market dynamics, Benecard continues to develop innovative solutions to help manage rising costs of GLP-1 drugs while ensuring appropriate care. Our comprehensive approach includes specialized plan design features which were previously addressed in our three-part bulletin series “decoding the rising Rx trends.” 

Contact us to explore strategies for managing GLP-1 medication expenses while supporting employee health outcomes. 

Sources: 

“The Race for Oral Obesity Drugs: Multiple Phase 3 Trials Vying for Next-Gen Status,” Fierce Pharma. 

“GLP-1 Market Heats Up as Companies Vie for Next-Gen Obesity Drugs,” Outsourcing-Pharma

“Why Amgen’s MariTide Could Rival Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk’s Obesity Drugs,” Business Today. 

“Four Oral GLP-1 Products in Phase III Trials as Race Intensifies,” Clinical Trials Arena. 

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Successfully Managing Rising Rx Costs Starts with Accurate Trends

In today’s market if you’re seeing prescription drug trend estimates in the single digits, you should know: those numbers don’t reflect reality. Some trend calculations may focus solely on manufacturer drug price inflation and therefore dramatically understate actual or true prescription benefit trends. To accurately project trends, additional critical factors must be considered:

  • Utilization Patterns – Prescription volume increases yearly as population age and chronic conditions become more prevalent and members simultaneously shift to newer, costlier alternatives. Medical advancements allow for earlier diagnosis which drives longer treatment duration and higher utilization.
  • Specialty and Non-Specialty Pipeline Impact – New to market drugs typically launch at premium price points as compared to existing products. These treatments often expand the treatable population while commanding unprecedented costs.

The Risk of Underestimating

When these factors are properly weighted, we consistently see trends in the mid to higher teens. When plans understate drug trends, they create severe budget shortfalls. This forces employers to make radical mid-year plan design adjustments or significantly increase contributions or benefit reductions the following year, all while making it increasingly difficult to secure stop-loss coverage in the following year without significant rate increases. 

Looking Ahead

While we can’t control drug prices, we can control how benefits are managed. That’s where Benecard Services is different. Instead of just chasing rebates and managing unit costs, we have aligned financial interests with our clients that focus on getting members the right medications while keeping costs in check. No conflicts of interest ― just patient-centered care that works.

With more specialty and GLP-1 drugs in the pipeline, these trends will only intensify. Contact us today at (800) 734-9528 or talktous@benecard.com to discuss how Benecard is helping employers tackle rising drug trends.

New Jersey state capitol building in Trenton

SHBP-Local Government’s Financial Crisis

The NJ State Department of Treasury released a report on May 20th confirming that the State Health Benefits Program for Local Government (SHBP-LG) has become financially unsustainable and needs immediate intervention to survive. The report also states that the School Employee Health Benefits Plan (SEHBP) is on the same trajectory and likely to follow the SHBP-LG’s deterioration.

The Immediate Financial Impact

A potential 26.5% increase could be applied as a combination of a mid-year rate increase in 2025 and/or factored into future renewals. This potential 26.5% increase is a culmination of the 7% premium rate increase required to repay the $120 million dollars still owed on a $258 million dollar loan and based on the SHBP-LG exhausting its claim stabilization reserves (CSR) which calls for an additional 19.5% increase.

This increase would be in addition to normal medical and prescription trends. The State’s consulting firm, Aon, projects prescription trends of 18% to 23% for 2026, with medical trends estimated at 8% to 10% based on current SHBP-LG data.  

What This Means for Plan Sponsors in the SHBP-LG

According to the Department of Treasury, immediate action is necessary for the SHBP-LG to survive. These actions require significant rate increases, forced plan design changes, and/or legislative actions. Plan sponsors should begin evaluating alternatives now to avoid compounding rate increases in 2025 and 2026 as well as potential plan design changes.  

Plan sponsors and their brokers should explore private carriers who can offer full risk protection and/or who can offer access to trusts or group purchasing organizations, which provide for greater stability by spreading the risk through such arrangements. While such quotes will likely show double-digit increases, private carriers do not carry the same financial burden as the SHBP does (i.e., debt burden and CSR requirement), which represents a considerable financial reduction for groups who transition sooner rather than later.

NEXT STEPS

Plan sponsors in the SHBP should obtain their most recent claim experience and census as soon as possible which will allow private carriers to provide the most accurate quotes.   If you are currently contracted with a broker, have them contact Benecard’s Vice President of Sales, Richard Van Noord, at (609) 651-5412 or Richard.VanNoord@benecard.com. If you do not have a broker, you can contact Richard directly to explore available solutions.